Polaris Prize 2012...ODDS!

It's that time of the year again: the 2012 Polaris Prize shortlist was announced last week, and for me, it didn't really contain many surprises. So, instead of arguing about who deserved to make the shortlist (a group of 10 whittled down from the earlier 40 albums), I'm going to do one fun, cool thing, and one literary, pensive thing:

Inspired by a poster on CBC Radio3 asking today what Grimes' odds were for winning the grand prize, I figured I'd go through the Top 10 and give payout odds for the albums, based on their likelihood to win the prize.

(Forgive my self-important douchebaggery and pretentiousness for a minute here, and I'll back up my odds-making with the fact that I predicted 6 of the 10 finalists in a Radio3 contest, and it would have been 8 of 10 had I went with my gut instead of who I thought the critics who choose the Polaris would have picked [ie. putting Coeur De Pirate on my list for French content, instead of the more-interesting Handsome Furs album, which did end up making it]. For comparison's sake, the winners of the contest were tied with 7 of 10 albums chosen correctly. Which is all to say: trust me.)

Secondly, for the albums I've actually listened to, I'm gonna try and give a defense for my odds, as well as a brief snapshot of the record. I've heard songs from all of the artists, so where it applies, I'll at least rate that content -- but don't take it as me rating the actual album itself.

And we're off, in ascending order of their odds to win the 2012 Polaris Music Prize:

10 | Handsome Furs | Sound Kapital | Odds: 50-1

I actually love this album, and think it's the perfect synthesis of the sound Handsome Furs have strived for over their last two albums: the more acoustic Plague Park and the drum-machine-propelled Face Control (reviewed – by me! - here). What I didn't think the Furs would make it for (the ‘done-before’ synth-rock vibe of the album) was probably offset for the jury panel by the post-apocalyptic concept of the album. 

Handsome Furs have always seemed to deal with dark subject matter, and while it was more evident on the downbeat Plague Park, and less-so on the almost-jubilant, club-referencing Face Control, that dark nature makes itself clear on Sound Kapital, pushing the lyrics and vocals to the front, and the wailing guitars and drum beats to the background; the story seems more of the focal point, and not the music itself. A strange thing for sure on, you know, a music album, but I think high-concept albums get rewarded in the Polaris proceedings (as you'll see below). The musical chops are there, but I can't help feeling like this album just snuck into the Top 10, and I can't see it taking home the entire thing, let alone the awkward reception that would greet this recently broken-up duo if they did win (they’re also husband and wife, though no word if they divorced as well).

9 | Kathleen Edwards | Voyageur | Odds: 40-1

From what I've heard of it, this is a stunningly beautiful and mature record, aided greatly in ambiance by Kathleen's boyfriend, Justin Vernon of Bon Iver -- you can hear many of his backing vocals in the singles she's released. Those singles are all I really have to go off of though having not listened to this album, but I can understand it's Top 10 standing given those tracks. I just can't pass judgment on this one other than to say it doesn't have a great chance to win based on the Polaris' past history of rewarding higher-concept albums.

8 | Cadence Weapon | Hope In Dirt City | Odds: 30-1

Again I'm admitting ignorance and saying I've heard two songs off this album: the fantastic "Conditioning" and the underwhelming, menacing, lazy-rap, Buck 65-aided "(You Can't Stop) The Machine". On that last one, I'm pretty sure Buck is trying lampoon other rappers, because I've certainly never heard him with that kind of flow before ("solid gold Camaro and platinum sombrero"? Not exactly classic Buck 65). Anyways, I'm getting off-track, but I think a lot of critics really like Cadence Weapon and what he's been doing for the progressive Canadian rap scene. Again, I can't really see him walking away with the grand prize though. Plus, he was already Poet Laureate of Edmonton, so like, he's already won enough distinctions, right?

7 | Japandroids | Celebration Rock | Odds: 20-1

Once more, an album I really love (but not as much as their bigger-sounding Post-Nothing), but one that I don't think has the chops to take the Polaris. It's a great, straightforward rock album with standouts like "The House That Heaven Built"...but not much else that they haven't done already, and done better on Post-Nothing. I'm leaving it at that - surprised they snuck in really.

6 | Feist | Metals | Odds: 18-1

Man, I feel embarrassed that there's this many records I haven't heard in full on this list. I wasn't a big fan of her first two releases from this album, but recent single "Cicadas & Gulls" is downtempo Feist at its finest for me, and I've heard tell that this is Feist at her most mature and adult-contemporary. She's got the cred and the history to take home the Polaris, but those odds are still pretty high.

5 | Drake | Take Care | Odds: 16-1

Good luck Aubrey Graham. I won't be rooting for you.

4 | Yamantaka // Sonic Titan | YT//ST | 15-1

Rock opera? Singing in Japanese? Live shows where they dress up and play instruments that also double as reclaimed garbage? These girls are so all over the place that I can’t offer an opinion other than “hey, maybe the jurors like that kind of thing”. I can see them winning. I can see them not even coming close.

3 | Cold Specks | I Predict A Graceful Expulsion | Odds: 11-1

I just finished writing about this spectacular songstress, and I think her brand of sincere songwriting and soulful vocals will take her a long way in the jurors’ final-decision room. (Yes, a select panel of them get together at the end and argue about which of the Top 10 albums deserves to win and they don’t come out until they’ve decided on one. I’m pretty sure I love the idea, if only because it works the same way as an actual trial jury. And also because I’m pretty sure “reasonable doubt” doesn’t figure in at all, since we all know how that went…)

2 | Grimes | Visions | Odds: 8-1

My prohibitive favourite if not for the next album on here. Grimes was hyped up quite a bit before her release of Visions, and I’ve been turned on to her and her future-pop sounds since last summer’s enthralling “Vanessa”. The way she’s been going this year she doesn’t even need the Polaris, but I think it would be a great reward for the obvious hard work and creativity she put into this record. I keep coming back to the selection criteria for the Polaris and don’t see how Visions doesn’t tick all of the boxes; creativity and artistic integrity being the paramount ones.

Claire Boucher is doing something with music that hasn’t been done before, if only for reinventing the multi-octave stylings of Mariah Carey for the 21^st century. She’s melodious, she’s avant-garde, she’s passionate, and she does a bang-up impression of 90’s R&B crooning in a musical era when almost all of that is being done by falsetto’ed dudes.

In a year when Austra’s stunning and similar (and Polaris shortlisting) 2011 release Feel It Break would have fit snugly beside Visions on this shortlist – probably giving it a run for its money for the top prize as well –  it’s great to see arrangements, beats, and music like that worthy of the critical praise that’s being heaped on Grimes. I’d be thrilled to see her walk away with the $30,000 award, but I don’t know if she will…

1 | Fucked Up | David Comes To Life | Odds: 5-1

…because this album knocked it out of the fucking park. Fucked Up already won a Polaris for their album The Chemistry Of Common Life, and I’ve made it clear here that I think they’re in line to become the first group to take home the award twice. Two words here: Rock. Opera. It sounds ludicrous, but the whole thing works astonishingly well. I probably haven’t listened to something this year as often or with so much enjoyment in so many different moods as DCTL. It’s happy, it’s sad, it rocks, it mellows out, it’s searing, it’s cool, it’s crazy, it’s rational – it accomplishes every damn thing an hour-long play wishes it could, and does it all with the simple sound of music.

Well, simple doesn’t do credit to the fantastic musicianship on this album. The guitar tracks are multi-layered and each one of them would fill a stadium on their own. Together, they form music that you can listen to over and over again and find something new in every time. The drums are an underrated aural assault, while Damian Abraham’s vocals are the exact opposite – unfortunately, if anyone’s going to hate Fucked Up, it’s because of his grating and throaty hardcore vocals, belting out anthems with all the subtlety of an angry toddler. He’s talented though, and the lyrics are unreal, spanning from the love-lost story of “The Other Shoe” to the sword:sheath, dagger:cloak, prisoner:jail comparisons on “Ship Of Fools” to the ruminations of grammar and syntax (?!) on “Life In Paper”.

And there’s the other part of the winning formula for me. Many good albums try to tell a story; very rarely does one succeed so brilliantly. It may take a few listens, but this is an album about love, loss, meta-storytelling, and insanity. The thing is even split up into four acts! Fucked Up spared no creative genius in putting together David Comes To Life, and it shows. For me, they should be rewarded for not only such a bold statement, but for the impeccable manner in which they pulled it off. David Comes To Life is the album your favourite band wishes they could make, and I think it’s going to win the Polaris Prize come this Fall. I’d even bet on it.